Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 21.313499 23.152753 25.137172 27.447601 30.076685 32.990755 36.486554
2025-11-09 18.383712 20.882555 23.762575 27.367046 31.814778 37.201728 44.344835
2025-11-16 16.238048 19.086432 22.542652 27.129264 33.190504 41.133088 52.705168
2025-11-23 14.622015 17.659641 21.501631 26.854979 34.360611 44.918555 61.740578
2025-11-30 13.370188 16.510876 20.622426 26.594537 35.414852 48.652391 71.636543
2025-12-07 12.406280 15.614852 19.942321 26.463617 36.561920 52.671372 83.123744
2025-12-14 11.559289 14.781897 19.238902 26.171351 37.363833 56.239305 94.935432
2025-12-21 11.195864 14.573199 19.378224 27.128484 40.271385 63.988220 117.939923
2025-12-28 10.584616 13.953599 18.845713 26.950160 41.211809 68.339964 135.552665
2026-01-04 10.087556 13.457272 18.445618 26.923481 42.390931 73.412182 157.513383
2026-01-11 9.726332 13.131623 18.272114 27.241572 44.238844 80.339160 188.812217
2026-01-18 9.302085 12.679307 17.858022 27.089785 45.143361 85.409437 218.146035
2026-01-25 8.875578 12.203574 17.380627 26.794350 45.757567 90.100872 250.737750
2026-02-01 8.531046 11.834499 17.049746 26.730433 46.851668 96.380335 296.307212
2026-02-08 8.186717 11.445122 16.656189 26.507411 47.568620 101.930898 345.949052
2026-02-15 7.864343 11.072339 16.263902 26.245484 48.157846 107.361781 403.552198
2026-02-22 7.569780 10.728284 15.896969 25.995153 48.735426 113.008572 473.266955
2026-03-01 7.317976 10.440431 15.607775 25.869278 49.592497 119.917101 568.125229
2026-03-08 7.060039 10.129491 15.258076 25.586799 50.019985 125.607451 670.537889
2026-03-15 7.000465 10.143669 15.484718 26.513269 53.707153 144.816675 992.468197
2026-03-22 6.786412 9.887090 15.205217 26.340837 54.454922 153.176391 1240.351664
2026-03-29 6.606111 9.679420 15.002571 26.315074 55.610297 163.954985 1630.046749
2026-04-05 6.480524 9.559278 14.954008 26.622865 57.783910 180.740089 2413.142734